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Prime London property braced for a fall

Prices of multimillion-pound homes in Central London may fall over the coming months as weaker financial markets and fears over patchy City bonuses and job security take their toll.  Savills, the property agency, expects minimal price growth – at best – over the coming six months and it is braced for prices to fall back by up to 5 per cent between the end of this month and the new year.  The agency is the first to adjust its growth expectations for prime parts of

Central London, including the so-called broker belt from Notting Hill down to Kensington and Chelsea, where house inflation has outstripped the rest of the country.

 For the past two years much of that growth has been fuelled by a multibillion-pound spending spree by City investment bankers, lawyers and accountants and a dramatic rise in the numbers of wealthy overseas buyers, particularly Russian and Middle Eastern investors.  Homes at the highest risk of price falls are priced between £1 million and £3 million, “where City buyers make up the highest proportion”, according to Lucian Cook, director of Savills residential research.   House-price growth has fallen back sharply over the past three months, with inflation down to 3.2 per cent quarteron-quarter, compared with the 9 per cent quarterly growth between January and March.  

Wealthy

City
househunters were buying with abandon between October of last year and July of this year, but they have held back from making purchases over the past six weeks as uncertainties return about the jobs market and about bonuses being reduced from last year.  The property agency has cut back its forecast for annual house-price inflation for prime Central London this year from 22 per cent to 18 per cent, but the extent of the reduction depends on “limited redundancies in the City and that the current crisis of confidence in the financial markets is shortlived”, Mr Cook said.  Savills has yet to make a final call on its forecast for next year, but Mr Cook said: “For prime we were predicting about 14 per cent, but that may come back to below 10 per cent. We still think prime Central London will outperform the rest of the capital and country.”

Source: The Times, 24/09/2007

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